The Kīlauea volcano on the Big Island is poised for another eruptive episode, with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory forecasting a potential peak in lava fountaining this weekend. This prediction is based on summit inflation data, which indicates that episode 51 is likely to occur between July 11 and 13. The Observatory's observations reveal a strong glow from both the north and south vents, along with rare spatter from the north vent, suggesting that magma is near the surface. This activity is accompanied by low-level seismic tremors and occasional bursts, likely linked to gas piston cycles in the vents.
The current pause in the eruption has been marked by inflationary tilt at the summit, with a recovery of about 14.1 microradians on the Uēkahuna tiltmeter. This recovery follows a deflationary trend during episode 50, which totaled 15.3 microradians on the UWD tiltmeter. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is now within the typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day.
In the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone, seismicity and ground deformation rates remain low, and SO2 emissions are below the detection limit. This suggests that the activity is confined to the summit area. The HVO's analysis highlights the continuous summit reinflation, interrupted by deflationary shifts, which have pushed back the forecast window for episode 51. The current forecast indicates that the episode will occur between July 11 and 13 if no additional deflationary events occur.
Kīlauea's eruptive behavior since December 23, 2024, has been characterized by episodic eruptions from two vents in Halema‘uma‘u, with lava fountaining episodes lasting less than 12 hours and separated by pauses of over three weeks. The HVO's monitoring efforts, in collaboration with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency, aim to provide timely updates on eruptive hazards.
This ongoing volcanic activity serves as a reminder of the dynamic nature of our planet and the importance of continuous monitoring and research. The HVO's predictions and observations are crucial for understanding the behavior of Kīlauea and for ensuring the safety of the surrounding communities. As the volcano continues to exhibit its unique characteristics, scientists and residents alike await the next chapter in this volcanic saga.
